midweek

[rolltide]

Celtic at Barcelona
- the days of sitting back with possession and winning 2-0 left with Guardiola. Watched most of their matches this year and you've got to change the way you view them...they are Real Madrid of the Beckham championship year....you score 2, they'll net 5. The can't score without the ball argument was a Pep creation but not in effect with this version. Deportivo probably didn't have 35% possession on Saturday and scored 4x. It actually wasn't until Barca went down a man at 4-3 that they played any defense. Possibilities today they start a 21 year old in central defense and Celtic did score 3 in Moscow. Right now looks like all 4 defenders are out but the attack is well in order. Only way this stays under 4 goals is if Celtic do nothing but defend which shouldn't be the case if they watched Barca play this year.

Celtic/Barca over 3.5 1u to win .75u

Wimbledon vs Bristol Rovers
- Rovers missing 2/3 of their payroll in the treatment room which is brutal at this level. Wimbledon suck for sure but if you can't take points from a Rovers side with 1 road win in 15 missing massive #'s of players, you're heading to the Conference.

Wimbledon pk .57u to win .5u

Man U vs Braga
- similar to Barca Man U without regular defense and this is a team that has conceded first goal in 7 of 11 games this year (winning 5 of those 7) with the normal guys in back. Offensively they're playing great football scoring at least 2 goals in 9 of last 10 games. In Europe only Otetul Galati and Gala have failed to net against United in past 10 games. Braga worst defense of any top 10 team in Portugal and only Benfica have scored more goals. United without Rio, Vidic, Ebra, Jones, and Smalling in defense so will but Carrick back in central defense along with Evans. Buttner likely to take on left back for Evra...he's great going forward but shaky defending.

United/Braga over 2.5 .7u to win .5u

some thoughts on BATE pk +175, Spartak over 2.5, and a few other English matches so might be back with more...

 

[rolltide]

nothing for me on spartak match. weather in moscow is 30 and breezy ... in benfica it's 73 and sunny. some serious goals in h2h b/w portuguese and russian teams in past few years though including a 5-2 and 5-1 porto wins vs spartak so i still think it's the right call. looks like L3 visits to Russia the Ports have put up 2-3, 1-3, and 5-2 results. But, not touching the early one

 

[brokerstip]

i might play the spartak over

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/s...em-rebrov-steps-in-for-spartak-moscow?cc=5901

 

[brokerstip]

ended up with over 2.5

tailing on the rest, lets have a profitable day:toast:

 

[rolltide]

Burnley vs Bristol City
- #1 and #2 gpg in league at 4.00 and 3.82 with 15 combined overs in 22 matches. BC last 6 in Bristol hit 3-5-6-8-5-2 ... Burnley last 9 away hit 4-4-4-5-2-3-3-4-7... last 4 h2h at Bristol hit 4-2-3-4

Burnley/BC over 2.75 .64u to win .5u


Galatasaray vs Cluj
- was really impressed by Gala offensively in Old Trafford despite not scoring and tonight is must-win for them which means if Cluj score, they must get 2+. Well, Cluj has scored away in 7/8 CL matches and b2b2b 2 goal away games. Nothing new as they've scored in past few years at Chelsea, Roma (both games), and Bayern. Gala #1 in goals scored in domestic league and most goals allowed from any team in the top 13 so clean sheets are not their forte. In last few years Gala hosting Romanian clubs finished 2-2 and 4-1. Last 6 results for TR clubs hosting ROM's ended with 1-1 3-1 4-1 2-2 4-2 1-2 ...

Gala/Cluj over 2.5 1u to win .81u

 

[rolltide]

wimbledon all the way to pk +104 now. not good

 

[brokerstip]

wow, man u down 2-0 20' in

 

[Coolie]

Dogs barking early

 

[brokerstip]

man u over can't get any easier, winner after 25'

 

[rolltide]

disappointing day

Barca 2-1 -1 ... Forster, a journeyman Eng keeper, was awesome. Barca 26 shots and 37 dangerous attacks
Wimbledon 3-1 +.5
United 3-1 +.5
BC 3-4 +.5
Gala 1-1 -1 ... great keeping from Cluj. missed penalty didn't help of course but normally 23 shots and 43 dangerous attacks will get you a 2nd goal...not for Gala


so lost .5u on day but feels like a big loss as the wins were easy and the losses were rough

 

[rolltide]

Dinamo vs PSG
- deja vu in 2012 for Dinamo in CL. just like last year they played really defensive for a few matches and after they figured out they were completely outclassed decided to open up the game and gave up 17 goals in final 3 matches, scoring 3x (after not scoring in first 3 games). I expect the same this season as they are not an incompetent offensive team but have no ability to defend at the CL level and now have just 2 home games remaining...today vs PSG then in Dec vs Kiev. This is PSG's first time in CL in many years and they know 6 points is a must from their two games vs Zagreb, starting today. To me they're not a great defensive team and will concede in Zagreb. To end L1 they allowed a goal in 8 straight away games and scored in 9 straight. So I see this going over...Porto should have won by at least 4 or 5 on their trip to Zagreb and PSG have more talented strikers with Ibra, Menez, and Gameiro. I believe PSG will score at least twice and they are not defensively sound enough to keep a lot of clean sheets so the over is my choice.

Dinamo/PSG o2.5 .52/.5u

Dortmund vs Real Madrid
- Dortmund defense is in shambles in past month with just 1 clean sheet and allowing multiple goals 3x. Offensively very impressive as they haven't been shut out since March and since Sept 2011 before that. Probably should have scored 3 or 4 in City if not for Hart standing on his head and while 1-1 is a possibility I still like the over. Nice stats to back the pick up below...

BD/RM over 2.5 .71u to win .5u


stats of day: Real Madrid is 1-6-16 all time playing German teams away...French teams 7-0-1 at home when hosting Greeks...Germans 0-1-14 L15 away in England...Milan won just 1 in last 9 away in Spain...over is 4-1 L5 when Port team hosts Ukrainian....13 straight matches b/w Spanish and German teams have seen at least 3 goals with home team 9-1-3....Real Madrid CL matches with 7 straight games reaching at least 3 goals and have scored in 13 consecutive away CL matches


other match thoughts...
Kiev in very bad form right now but don't want to need to win by 2 to get the $$. Gunners missing some key offensive players or would be backing them on pk -175 line as Germans simply can't win in England...Mont/Oly = no idea...Malaga is, with PSG, the public bet of the day so nothing for me...I think 3/1 for Ajax winning at home is nice value...either way if I win it'll be because of my master capping but if I lose it'll be fixes. sounds about right for this board

 

[brokerstip]

thanks tide, was already on the rm over and threw some on the psg over as well

 

[brokerstip]

that rm stat really makes me want to play the +.5 on BD

 

[rolltide]

Montpelier vs Olympiakos
- heavy trends on French team in must win situation so sort of like Gala yesterday. Only once in 16 matches this fall has a Montpelier match not reached 2 goals (that ended 1-0). These teams have 0 and 1 point so it's a pivotal match and they'll be going for the W. Oly have scored in 4 of their last 5 away CL matches against Marseille, Arsenal (2x), and Bordeaux while Montpelier have played 1-2 and 2-2 to open up 2012 CL. Only 5 teams in French league have conceded more than Montpelier who have a 2.89 gpg average in local league. Oly of course head and shoulders above all other greek teams, like Celtic in Scotland, so hard to compare. Most importantly they've scored in last 6 matches played in France...

Montpelier .65u to win .5u

 

[brokerstip]

Montpelier vs Olympiakos
- heavy trends on French team in must win situation so sort of like Gala yesterday. Only once in 16 matches this fall has a Montpelier match not reached 2 goals (that ended 1-0). These teams have 0 and 1 point so it's a pivotal match and they'll be going for the W. Oly have scored in 4 of their last 5 away CL matches against Marseille, Arsenal (2x), and Bordeaux while Montpelier have played 1-2 and 2-2 to open up 2012 CL. Only 5 teams in French league have conceded more than Montpelier who have a 2.89 gpg average in local league. Oly of course head and shoulders above all other greek teams, like Celtic in Scotland, so hard to compare. Most importantly they've scored in last 6 matches played in France...

Montpelier .65u to win .5u

by reading the write up, it appears you like the over. you play mont to win or the over?

i just look at the odds and i have montpelier -.5+115 or over 2.5+140

that's why i was asking with the line of -110 you listed

 

[rolltide]

oh yeah, sorry. over 2 -130 is my bet

alternately over 2.25 +105 is ok but prefer the push on 2

 

[brokerstip]

fk, futbol24 had me fooled. heard the ding for a goal 89' goal by psg and then about 30 seconds later i heard the buzz to take away my goal. turned a winning afternoon into a loser afternoon in soccer today.

 

[rolltide]

Got my half unit back from yday but crazy misses for 3rd by psg...including a candidate for miss of the year that still has ESPN showing 0-3 final

 

[tk2wndw]

I had psg today but it was still frustrating watching them trying to get their 3rd. They played so non-challant the entire second half, that header by the sub they brought in, not only was it the miss of the year, he somehow missed it wide by 20 yards. Also watching ibra trying to pull off a bicycle kick on that one cross when he could have easily headed it in. Was pulling my hair out for a little buffer, but survived without it.

 

[rolltide]

what's so funny (well not really funny) is that major media outlets still give him a goal....it was THAT bad!

Paris Saint-Germain were wasteful on the attack but it really didn't matter as they rolled past Dinamo Zagreb 3-0. Jérémy Menez scored a goal and assisted on another to lead Les Parisiens.It took a little over 30 minutes for PSG to break through, but it really was inevitable as Zagreb knew they had to defend like crazy, but were still willing to try to attack on the counter. Those forays in to PSG's half opened things up for the inevitable counters from PSG.The first came in the 32nd minute when Jérémy Menez powered down the right side and centered the ball in the box just as he was shoulder blocked to the ground. His pass found Zlatan Ibrahimovic in space and he did what he does best, beating Ivan Kelava with a low shot.PSG took advantage of another break in the 43rd minute asJavier Pastore found Menez in space on the right. Menez moved in to the Zagreb box and worked around Ante Puljic, who gave him way too much space, before firing a shot that Kelava could only deflect in to a different part of the goal than it was originally heading.The second half was mostly a formality as the pace of the game slowed to a crawl and Zagreb could do nothing to bother the PSG defense. Zlatan missed a fabulous chance to push the lead three in the 64th minute after Pastore's pass set him loose on a break against Kelava. Instead of just firing the ball past the stranded keeper, Zlatan went for the highlight reel chip and missed his shot wide to the right. Bad Zlatan.It wasn't just Zlatan, though. Several PSG players missed great chances to really pad their goal differential, but it just wasn't a night for accurate finishing in Croatia. PSG did get a third goal in the final minutes thanks to Guillaume Hoarau, who almost managed to miss a couple chances of his own in limited minutes. If PSG had been facing a more dangerous side, it could have been a lot different result.